03

2000 CENSUS TRENDS
CITY OF CHICAGO
POPULATION AND HOUSING STATISTICS
“Uncoupling and Doubling Up in a Successful Urban Center”
Peter Fugiel © June, 2002

(This research was presented to the staff of the Chicago Department of Housing in the summer of 2002.)

Summary of the Research
The City of Chicago is one of the few older Frost Belt cities that have reversed previous negative population and household trends. For the first time in forty years, the decennial census results indicate that the City has gained a modest amount of additional residents and households.

The increase in additional residents is attributable to the new migrants, whereas both Caucasian and African-American populations declined. The increase in the number of new households was entirely attributable to the gains made in the number of owner households. This meant that the City’s ownership rate increased by nearly two percentage points, rising to nearly 44%. This compares to a national ownership rate of 67%.

On the negative side of the ownership rate equation, the number of rental units actually declined, by nearly 3,000 units. With the record number of conversions to owner units, and with the continuing abandonment of rental properties, the rental market tightened significantly in the City. Rent increases well above the inflation rate have become routine. The number of very large households (seven or more members, continues to grow.)

Most notable in the results posted for the past decade, was the continuing increase in the number of small (renter and owner) households, those with only one or two members. By the year 2000, the number of this type of household rose to 621,000 units, an amount equal to 62% of all city housing units. Since the number of Chicagoans living in these small units amounted to only 900,000 people, this meant that 31% of the City’s population lived in 59% of the units!

On the other hand, the most rapidly growing type of households by size, were those with either 5 members, or households with seven or more members. While these very large households were housed in roughly 80,000 housing units, the combined population of these large households was an estimated 640,000.

In effect, as the Chicago housing market gained stability and attracted large numbers of young working adults, it also attracted a large number of immigrants from Latin America and Asia. Census results indicate Chicago to be a successful metropolitan employment center, one with significant ‘uncoupling’ and ‘doubling up’ going on in the housing market, simultaneously.

Some surprises include: a substantial increase (+18,000) in older baby boomers who still rent, a significant out-migration of 30,000 households aged 55-75 (renters and owners,) and a slight increase in overall household size.

Subsequent research is expected to examine the same housing and demographic trends in the surrounding, and larger, Cook County market.

2000 Census Trends
City of Chicago Population and Housing Statistics
I. Population and Households

II. Chicago Households by Number of Household Members

B. Chicago Population by Size of Household

Note: Two-thirds of all new Chicago residents (72,597) were members of larger households, those with five or more members.
III. Chicago Residents by Size of Households in Which They Live

A. Small Households

B. Large Households (3 or more members)

Note: 80% of all new households formed in the City in the past ten years were small households. However, on a population increase basis, 65% of the City’s population increase was attributable to persons living in very large households, those with five or more members. Also, on a percentage basis, the most rapidly growing household types were those with either five or seven or more members. The combined increase in the number of larger households (5,6 and 7 or more members) was 7,745. The combined increase in the number of persons living in these households was 72,597, for a persons to household ratio of 9.4 to 1. These numbers contrast with the increase in the number of one and two member households for the decade, which was 29,347, with a population increase of 41,691. The ratio here is 1.4 to 1.

C. Trend in Number and Household Members for Small and Larger Households
(1990 – 2000)

D. Select Average Household Size of select Chicago Community Areas in the 2000 Census

IV. Housing Units by Householder Age and by Tenure

V. Owner Occupancy Rates

VI. Population By Race

VII. Long Term Population/Household Trends

VIII. Analyst’s Work Notes

1. Population and Household Numbers Stable/Negative trend reversed.

2. Housing Market is bifurcating between upscale (owner) households and a much more expensive rental market, which is split between upscale younger renters, and new immigrants, with very large household sizes.

3. Ownership has moved up nicely among all age groups, dominated by huge baby boom demand, and followed by impressive demand from younger, smaller, and more affluent age cohorts. Senior (75+) ownership is up as well.

4. Rental market receives the spillover from potential ownership ranks, as rents move up more quickly than incomes. Chicago ownership rates are well below the national average of 67%.

5. Overall cost of the City housing market has resulted in a strong rental profile among all age cohorts, starting with the older 45-54 baby boom cohort.

6. Loss of age 55-74 households, on both the owner and renter sides, is perhaps the most dramatic surprise in these numbers.

7. Racial changes continue to be profound, with the loss of 150,000 non-Hispanic whites, the interesting decline in African-American population for the first time in the City's history, and the substantial increase in Asian, non-Hispanic members of other races, and of course, non-race based Hispanic populations.

8. Chicago's housing and demographic numbers are increasingly interdependent on trends in Cook County, and that matter, the larger metro area. An analysis of the county will follow.

9. Long term City population (since 1960) has declined nearly 20%, with a 1990-2000 increase of only 4%.

• Household numbers have dropped less rapidly, or 8.3% between 1960-2000.

• Vacant units have stabilized during 1990-2000 decade. The number is still huge.

• Household size dropped an impressive 11% between 1960-1990, and then reversed between 1990-2000. This is a good indication of shortages and higher costs.

10. The demand for all types of housing in Chicago is strong. Chicago appears to have developed a classic “Urban Center” demographic profile, which includes high concentrations of baby boom and post-baby boom residents. The rental market looks to be in excellent shape, and the owner market has made a substantial contribution to the city’s ownership rate, to additional housing units, and to population gain.

Analyst’s Work Notes (continued)

Immigration numbers are impressive and spell a dramatic new development in the demand for affordable housing. The number of very large households in Chicago is a surprise. Rental housing unit preservation may be the key to keeping up with the strong demand for larger, more affordable city dwelling units. There currently are no federal programs for preserving existing ‘market rate’ rental properties in markets where the demand exceeds supply. Clearly though, in tight rental markets, such as in Chicago, preservation strategies can have as much merit as the better known (and more expensive) affordable programs.